At the end of day 3 of the Boxing Day Test the equation is simple, India needs close to 500 runs to win with 10 wickets in hand. Going by the history of Test Cricket, no team has ever won chasing 500 in the 4th innings. Only thrice have teams won chasing 400. Hostile Australian fast bowling backed by superb fielding and unsettled Indian batting order all makes Australia favourites to win the match tomorrow itself.
But I am thinking positively (for a change) and that Impossible task of chasing 500 is possible. I am taking inspiration from India's Test wins against Australia so far this decade. All of them looked absolutely impossible.
1) Kolkata - India were following on trailing Australia by 274 runs. It took India Laxman's 281, Dravid's 180 and Harbajan's 13 wickets that included a hat-rick for the impossible to happen.
2) Chennai - At the end of day 1 Australia were 300 odd for 3 and Hayden completed 200. It took Sachin's 126, Laxman's twin 60s and Harbhajan's 15 wickets to turn the tide in India's favour.
3) Adelaide - Australia 400/5 on day 1. India 84/4 on tea on day 2 chasing Australia's 556 in 1st innings. It then took Dravid's 300 in the match, Laxman's 148 and Agarkar's quick 6 second innings wickets.
4) Mumbai - India bowled out for 100 in the first innings. Australia needed just 107 to win in 4th innings. It took shrewd captaincy from Dravid and tight spell from spin triplet led by Murli Karthik to script an impossible victory.
India trailed Australia in the first innings in all of those matches except the for the one in Chennai. It took a few great individual performances, record breaking partnerships and complete team work to win.
Looking at how some of the recent 4th innings totals have been chased
1) West Indies bt Australia at Antigua in 2003 chasing 418.
2) Australia bt South Africa chasing 280 odd off 75 overs loosing just 2 wickets.
3) West Indies came within 60 runs of chasing 460 set by England in the 3rd Test of 2007 series in England.
4) Sri lanka led by Sangakkara's 192 fell short by just 96 runs chasing Australia's 500. Had umpire not given the wrong decision, who knows Sri Lanka might as well have won.
5) At Perth last year England were in with a chance of chasing 550 against Australia by being 300/3 at the end of 4th day.
6) Zimbabwe batted 2 days led by Andy Flowers 232* to save the match against India at Nagpur.
7) Atherton's 185* saved England the J,burg test against South Africa having to bat 2 days to save the test.
8) Jacques Rudolph's unbeaten century saved South Africa the Brisbane Test having to bat a day and half. That was the last time Australia didn't win a Test 17 tests ago.
Pitches have improved considerably in the recent past and they do last 5 days without becoming a mine-field on the 5th day. This Melbourne Pitch is still good for batting and India has the batting resources. Australia's bowlers are not experienced and will be severely tested when the batting looks settled. Absence of a quality spinner should work in India's favour. You need a spinner or two to bowl tight long spells especially in the second innings.
Indian batsmen need to play their natural game and score runs. They need to overcome nervousness of playing in the 4th innings that too against Australia. They should look for singles and use the bad balls by putting them away for runs. They will also need help from the umpires. They shouldn't get the same treatment that they got in 1st innings. There will be several tough spells which will have to negotiated. Once the bowlers tire there will be plenty of runs to be made. Australians no doubt will set attaching fields and there will be plenty of gaps to score runs. Thought of playing for a draw should never come in. If they can bat out 2 days, they can as well score 500 to win. In form batsmen like Sachin, Saurav and Laxman needs to put their hands up and score big runs. Others will have to support them. India needs 2 or 3 big partnerships. Kumble needs to keep telling his batsmen to be positive as he did during the successful 4th innings chase at Delhi.
Before the series began, I had doubts about the Indian bowling lineup. I think, they did a great job in the 1st test. They bowled with lot of fire and energy. With little more discipline and help from fielders, they are on the way to capture 20 wickets. They seem to enjoy the fact that Australian batsmen like to go after their bowling which kind of challenges them and also gives the bowlers a chance to get them out. They gave Australian tail enders an opportunity to bat which they didn't get in the previous series. India needs to stick with the 2 spinner approach throughout the series.
Australia are favourites to win it but India has a chance to make a match of it. I would like to see India ending tomorrow's day at around 300 for 3.
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